Assignment
For the successful implementation of a project it is essential that the people involved in its implementation be sensitive to the risks involved in the project and formulate the most suitable structure for the management of such risks. There are certain variables and uncertainties in common to most of the infrastructure projects. Many risk mitigation techniques are applied to infrastructure projects. Discuss in details the risk management to construction with special reference to a project currently in progress with your company.STUDY
Risk Management of Construction
Industry Managers, the lesson book complied by NICMAR
KEY
i.
Describe scope of project in short
ii.
Explain type of project
iii.
Note down important points of perceived construction
risk, project risk, risk economic risk, insurance.
iv.
Risk mitigation is done in construction infrastructure
development projects.
STRUCTURE
- Name of project
- Scope of work
- Important details project, cost, time, type risk involved, risk mitigation etc.
- Important points from contractor’s project managers point of view to be monitored/resolved.
- Method followed for administer and monitor risk
- Recommendations / Conclusion
- Bibliography / Readings
TYPE OF PROJECT
XYZ IMPLITZ LTD is a design consultancy providing tower
design solutions to the telecom and power sectors.
The scope of our work includes the following:
- Tower design
- Design checking
- Preparation of Structural Fabrication Drawings
- Building analysis for installing a roof top tower.
- Preparation of structural drawings of existing buildings (if building structural drawings are not available)
- Supporting beam design for installing roof top tower.
- Foundation design of ground based tower
- Estimations during tender stages
- Dynamic analysis and Non Linear Analysis.
- Design Checking and strengthening of towers
- Preparation of as built drawings
One of the cellular service providers by the name of
TELESERVICES MH LTD asked us to design a ground based tower.
It was a 60 metre tower based on a piece of land that the
client had acquired from the landowner by entering into a contract with him.
The agreement was for a valid consideration and for a definite period of time.
After the lapse of the period the client would either have to dismantle the
tower or renew the agreement with the landowner for a further period.
The parties involved in the project were the client, the
consultant, the contractor and the outsourcing companies who accomplished the
work of acquiring the land for the client. The modus operandi was thus:
The outsourcing agent would acquire the land shortlisted by
the client from the landowner by doing the necessary groundwork and entering
into necessary legal agreements for a valid consideration. The client would
then summon the consultant and give his requirements of tower height and load of
antennae coming on the tower, etc. Based on this the consultant would prepare
layout drawings after conducting a prelimnary survey whether the piece of land
would be enough for a tower of that height. He would then furnish the layout
drawings and then conduct the soil investigation of the proposed site to
ascertain the safe bearing capacity of the soil. Depending upon the
recommendation of the client, and the data gathered from the soil investigation
and from the client the consultant would then design the tower for the required
load coming on the tower along with its foundation system. He would also design
the supporting beams for the shelter and the diesel generator.
On receiving the design drawings the client would then pass
them on to the contractor earmarked for the project and he would then order the
material required for the erection depending upon the bill of materials
furnished by the consultant's drawings. The consultant would also give the
fabrication drawings based on which the steel sections would be fabricated in
situ. Based on the erection drawings of the consultant the contractor would
then start erection of the tower and its accessories namely the shelter and
diesel generator. Once the erection has been done then commissioning would
commence in which the client's engineers would cross check the contractor's
work by simulating conditions similar to those that would prevail under normal
working of the tower. Once the commissioning is over then the site would be
handed over to the client by the contractor. The client would then ask the
consultant to prepare as built drawings of the site showing the views of the
tower as it is standing. In all these works there are a lot of risks that each
of the parties have to bear and find out ways to mitigate. Following are the
list of risks that each of the parties have to bear.
RISKS HANDLED BY EACH OF THE PARTIES TO THE PROJECT
Risks from the perspective of the cellular service provider
Revenue Risk
Revenue risk is the uncertainty in relation to the revenue
that a project would actually generate. The uncertainty of the revenue of an
infrastructure project (as opposed to other industrial projects) is because of
its public nature, which carries with it the uncertainty in the ability and
willingness of consumers to pay for the benefits arising from the project. In
this case the client will be bearing the risk of spending on the facility and
then hoping that he gets some other operators to share the tower with him. Also
that people in that region will subscribe to mobile telephones so that he can
recover the costs of his erecting a tower in that region.
Design Risk
This risk relates to any defect in the design of the
infrastructure facility or the design requirements stipulated for the project.
This is an inherent risk in the project as it is very difficult to conclusively
ascertain that the damage to the facility is actually caused due to the defect
in the construction or design assumptions made by the consultant or design data
supplied by the client or the very design itself. Generally, it is the design
contractor who is responsible for the design aspects of the project. In the
case of the project the client has to indemnity himself from any damage that
may be caused by the accidental falling of the tower due to wind pressure or
any other reason. In design risk itself the cellular service provider has to
indemnify himself vide his purchase orders that he is not responsible for any
standard laws that the design contractor may violate, whether they are labor
laws or laws governing structures in that region and national building codes.
He also indemnifies himself against injury to any of the workers of the design
contractor during the process of conducting the survey. The client also
indemnifies himself against any false assumptions that the consultant may make
in the designing of the project facility. In our project the consultant had to
make various assumptions based on the standard facts regarding the land strata
as the land was such that it was not possible to collect site data using normal
methods.
Costs as the main risk
The main risk involved in the gestation stages relate to the
costs being incurred on the narrowing down on a suitable land for erection of a
mobile tower. There is a high probability that the land may be dropped from the
list of approved sites by the client due to practical considerations like lack
of proper approach road, etc. Even if a decision is taken to develop and
implement the project further, there is a possibility that the costs incurred
at this stage may simply keep an increasing and may occur again at the
developmental stage. There may be instances where the landowner may back out of
the proposal given to him by the client.
Social impact
A prelimnary study should be undertaken regarding the impact
of the installation of the tower in a particular area, the extent of hardship
it may cause to people living there. There is a possibility that the owner of
the building or land where the tower has been installed will not allow access
to the cellular service provider for maintainance purposes in spite of the fact
that he is receiving rent for the piece of land occupied by the client. This he
does as he suffers harassment when the client's engineers come for maintenance
work. He faces the risk that the building or landowner may discontinue the
arrangement due to adverse effects of the tower on human beings.
Technical feasibility
A prelimnary study of the engineering requirements and
feasibility of the project being sought to be undertaken should be made. There
may be a possibility that a ground based tower may not be suitable on the land
earmarked for the same. The soil conditions on the land may not be conducive to
erection of a tower of a particular height. The orientation of the tower that
is required to be provided by RF point of view may not be obtained due to
practical conditions prevailing at site.
Financial Risk
This risk is the totality of all risks that relate to the
financial developments external to the project that are not in the control of
the clients. This risk is common to all the parties to the project. These risks
include: 1)risks associated with the fluctuations of foreign exchange rates. 2)
risks associated with the devaluation of the local currency. 3)Risks associated
with the non-convertibility or non-repatriation of foreign exchange from India,
and 4)Risks associated with the fluctuations in interest rates. In our case
this risk was prevalent as foreign investment was brought in by the client for
the project.
Political Risk
Political risks are a bundle of distinct risks that can
include not only political factors but also administrative, social and economic
factors. Political risks associated with a project are closely evaluated as
they are generally outside the control of the parties to the project, other
than the government to a certain extent. But even the government fixing the
policies of the telecom industry do not have control over all the categories of
political risks. It should be kept in mind that many of the political risks
arise from the possibility of arbitrary action by the government and altering
the framework on which the very foundation of the project rests. The main
categories of political risks include
- Risk of political instability such as riots, revolutions, coup d'etat, terrorism, guerrilla warefare
- War, whether declared or undeclared.
- International sanctions
- Expropriation
- Nationalization
- Creeping expropriation (discretionary regimes, excessive taxation, import restrictions, refusal to allow or provide for collection or review of tarrifs, etc)
- Failure to grant or renew approvals and Excessive interference in the implementation of the project, thereby causing severe prejudice to the concessionaire. (in this case the TRAI)
Force Majeure Risks
These risks are regarding the events that are outside the
control of any party and cannot be reasonably prevented by the concerned party.
These risks generally arise due to causes extraneous to the project. The
defining of force majeure events include:
- National force majeure events comprise all events that can be submitted to natural conditions or acts of god such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones and typhoons. These risks shold be shared equally among the parties.
- Direct political force majeure events are attributable to political events that are specific to the project itself such as expropriations, nationalization
- Indirect political force majeure. Events are those that have their origin in political events but are not project specific such as war, riots, etc.
- In our case this risk was considered to the extent that a storm could disrupt operations of tower erection during the construction stage and that would lead to loss of life and property.
Construction risks
The construction risks are essentially a bundle of various
individual risk factors that adversely affect the construction of a project
within the time frame and costs projected and at the standards specified for
the facility. Construction risks generally relate to:
- Risks related to the availability of land for the project
- Suitability of the land for the construction of the project facility
- Delay in completion of the construction
- Cost overruns in supplies, transportation, machinery, equipment, new materials, etc.
- Availability of the basic infrastructure required for the construction of the facility such as water, electricity, etc.
- Availability of workforce
- Occurrence of force majeure events, and
- Failure of the facility to meet the performance criteria and standards specified.
- In our project this risk was very important as all the above mentioned factors could go wrong during the project.
Operating risks
Operating risks are similar to the construction risks. They
are a bundle of risks associated with the operation of the infrastructure
facility. Operating risks generally relate to:
- Operating cost overruns
- Risks related to obsolescence
- Risks associated with compliance of specified performance criteria, quality and quantity (as the case may be)
- Force majeure risks and
- Risks associated with the inability to comply with the maintenance standards and availability of funds required for the operation and maintenance of the facility
Risks from the perspective of the contractor
Ability to implement the project in a commercially viable manner
The main concern of the project contractor would be to
ensure that the contract for lease of the piece of land between the client and
the landowner are without any legal hindrances i.e. the title of the land is
clear and no other claimants will come when he is carrying out the erection
work of the owner. He is concerned about the fact that he does not become a
basket for storing all the risks simply on the basis that it is obtaining a
commercial return. In our project there was a constant danger that the land
acquisition team had not done their work properly and that the title of the
land was not clear but still the client had to choose it as his radio frequency
team had shortlisted it.
Certainty of Costs
Each obligation each risk and each uncertainty has an
attached cost. The aim of the contractor should be to ensure the project can be
determined and controlled in a certain manner. In our project the contractor
was not paid any initial amount for mobilization and he had to do all the
initial investment on his own. Hence it was very necessary that he controlled
the costs that he incurred.
Return of investment
The project and the documentation should be capable of
providing an adequate return to investors in the project. This is a universal
necessity in order to justify any private investment in any venture. In our
project the contractor had to arrange for finance on his own at a certain cost
to him and hence he would expect that he earn a certain percentage more in
doing the work than the rate of interest he has to pay funds to execute the
work.
Distribution and Management of Risks
The documentation in relation to the project should be such
so as to enable the passage of various risks that are not within the control of
the contractor but it has been allocated to it under the main concession or
license. The contractor should not be straddled between the various documents
with risks it has no control over or is not capable of absorbing. Thus the risk
allotted under the contract to the contractor should flow down to the various
sub-contractors under the relevant documents with the sub-contractors. In our
case there were no sub-contractors and hence the contractor had to bear the
risk on his own.
Force Majeure Risks
This risk is not in control of any party to the contract and
the contractor like the client is exposed to the same risks as the client. This
risk is similar to that faced by the client.
Providing a level playing field
Here the contractor is exposed to the vagaries of
competition. Since there would be many contractors interested in doing the work
for the client, it is necessary that the tendering and bidding process be as
transparent as possible. The contractor is however at times exposed to
nefarious dealings of a coterie of contractors who collude with the clients for
the purpose of getting the work thus leading to rigging of the tendering
process.
In our project there was a great deal of transparency in the
tendering procedure and three aspects were considered important by the client
in awarding the contract, one being the contractors past experience in doing
such works, secondly, his price bid and thirdly, his financial strength.
Financial Risk
This risk faced by the contractor is similar to that faced
by the client. In our case, the contractor was paid after the work was carried
out and he was given no advances for his mobilization, etc. This resulted in
him resorting to taking finance from lenders at a cost. He would then pay off
the debts when he got paid by the client. In such cases the timing of payment
made by the client plays a very important role and the contractor must make the
payment terms clear before he can take up the contract.
Physical Risks
Physical risks relate to the ground conditions, natural
conditions, adverse weather conditions, physical obstructions and other
physical conditions that would adversely affect the implementation of the
construction activities at the project site. It happens at site that the ground
conditions are not what the consultant has assumed in his design. In our
project this risk was not faced by contractor as things were laid to rest in
the consultant's report.
Construction risks
The construction risk relate to the factors affecting the
very ability to undertake construction activities like availability of
resources, industrial relations, safety during construction, quality of raw
material, workmanship, delay in supplies, strikes by transport operators,
shortage of material required for the project construction techniques, failure
to comply with construction milestones, cost of construction, etc.
Design Risks
The design risks relate to, as the term itself suggests, the
risks associated with the design of the project facility. These relate to
incomplete design, design life, availability of information, compliance with
standards, completion of design, viability of design, etc. In some cases even
there may be a change of the standards being followed in designing such project
facilities. The contractor in his contract with the client indemnifies himself
against any errors made by the consultant by stating that the erection has been
done based on the drawings supplied by the contractor.
Risks from the perspective of the consultant
Risk of revenue
In this type of risk the consultant may give the total
design to the client, but may not get paid for it due to the inability of the
client to pay up. In certain cases the client may get insolvent and the
consultant may have to make do with whatever he offers as payment. In our
project we had no such risk as the client was very strong financially and this
risk did not arise.
Risk from the contractor
The contractor may misinterpret the drawings given by the
consultant and consequently do erroneous work of erection of tower. In our case
the consultant had to guard against this risk as the client had given work to
contractors who were not experienced in erection of tower. This led to more
consultant visits on the site to inspect the erection.
Force Majeure Risk
This risk affects the consultant also and covers all the
risks explained earlier in case of client and contractor.
Risk of change in standards
The consultant may have to face the risk of change in
standards by the statutory bodies like national building codes, Indian standard
codes, etc.
Risk of wrong data from clients
In the project of tower erection the consultant has to
perform a survey to collect site data for incorporating into the design. At
this time the consultant is also given data from the client like load of the
batteries placed in the building, etc. This data may be erroneous and the
consultant has to guard against such an eventuality.
Risk against statutory bodies
The consultant faces the risk of cancellation of his license
by statutory bodies like the Municipal Corporation, etc for violating general
standards of design. The consultant had obtained the ISO 9000 certificate for
quality work and there was a necessity to document whatever the consultant did.
The quality council could cancel the award for non conformance with its laid
out standards.
RISK MITIGATION IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS.
Risk response and mitigation is the action that is required
to reduce or eliminate the potential impact of risk. There are two types of
response to risk-
One is an immediate change or alteration to the project,
which usually results in the elimination of the risk, second is the contingency
plan that will only be implemented if an identified risk should materialize.
The risk manager is responsible for identifying the risks
that arise, taking suitable action to mitigate or avoid them and evaluate the
consequences of his actions. Using adequate contingency plans risks that are
unavoidable are mitigated thus ensuring that the overall project objective of
time, cost, and quality is not jeopardized.
The options of responding to risk are the following:
- Risk avoidance
- Risk reduction
- Risk transfer
- Risk sharing
- Risk retention
- Insurance
- Allocation of risks
Risk avoidance
This is perceived as the ultimate mitigation strategy
implying that the project may be aborted. This may be caused by eliminating the
cause of the risk. Alternative courses of action are examined. Other examples
of risk avoidance include the use of exemption clauses in contracts, either to
avoid certain risks or consequences of risks. In certain cases the project may
be aborted. An example of risk avoidance in our projects is that the client who
gives work of as built drawing to the consultant mentions on his purchase order
to the consultant that he be indemnified from any wrong assumptions made by the
consultant or any wrong policies followed by the consultant and which are
against standards laid out by the statutory bodies.
Risk reduction
This method adopts an approach whereby potential exposure to
risks and their impact is alleviated. Here one considers alternative solutions
for risk reduction, examining in detail and obtain more information. Take
management or design action. In our projects the client used to employ this
strategy by giving other cellular operators the use of the tower installed at
his cost by charging a monthly fee for the same from the operator. This will
reduce his risk to the extent that his cost of maintaining the facility will
become less to that extent.
Risk transfer
This method involves the transfer of risk to other project
participants. Commonly, risks are transferred through the placement of
contracts, the appointment of specialist sub-contractors or suppliers or by
taking out an insurance policy. In our projects the cellular operator used to
transfer the risk on the project company, by not paying it any mobilization
charges or advances for the work commencement. The project company in turn was
transferring the risk to the contractors by paying them when they completed the
work on a particular tower site. Thus they used the method of risk transfer to
mitigate the risks. Secondly the client used to transfer the risk of damage to
his expensive tower equipment by taking out an insurance policy for the same.
Risk sharing
Where a portion of the risk is transferred whilst some risk
is retained this is known as risk sharing. This approach may be adopted where
the risk exposure is beyond the control of one party. In such instances it is
imperative that each party appreciates the value of the portion of the risk for
which it is responsible. In our project of tower erection once the tower erection
and commissioning was complete then the cellular service provider would share
the facility with some other operator so that he could earn some money in the
bargain and thus share the risk that he bears against the owner of the land.
Risk retention
Once all the risk mitigation strategies are exhausted and
there are still some risks remaining, then this method is adopted to nullify
this risk. This means that when the estimate is being done for tower erection
then some contingencies are always considered in the estimates to eliminate the
residual risks that remain after applying all the risk mitigation strategies
that are elaborated earlier. In our project the consultant employed this
strategy to mitigate the risk that he faced from his staff i.e. he used to bear
the burden of wrong design and assumptions made by one of his employees in
designing the tower. The consultant paid compensation to the client for any
such eventuality.
Insurance
This is a technique of risk transfer or risk reduction
depending upon the nature of the contract between the insurer and the insurance
company. This is a technique to minimize the cost of loss due to specific risks
for a certain consideration. This technique was adopted by the cellular
services providers to transfer the loss due to damage to their towers to the
insurance company for a specific consideration. The contractor who was
executing the projects was also resorting to this method of risk management for
covering his loss due to any damage to his equipment used for execution.
Allocation of risks
This would entail a third party to undertake the measures to
control or mitigate a risk, and bear the adverse consequences, if it is not
able to redress the risk, thereby insulating the other parties to the project
from the direct impact of the risk.
The main principle for evaluating an adequate allocation or
risks is that the party which is best placed to control or redress the risk or
the circumstances that may arise if the risk occurs should be allocated the
risk.
CONCLUSION
Thus we see that risk can be managed, but to do so, requires
a deliberate and structured approach. A pragmatic approach to risk management
should be followed depending upon the project success depends ultimately on a
combination of honest intention, rigorous analysis and professional judgement
References:
1. Project financing in corporate sector by C.G. Karandikar / G.M Dave2. Construction Finance management ( NCP 29 ) by NICMAR
3. Project formulation and Appraisal ( PGPM – 21) By NICMAR
4. Website: http:/indiabudget.nic.in
5. Website: Census of india
6. NSS 63rd Round ( July 2006 – June 2007)